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Platinum’s Poorer Relation: Palladium
Written by Brad Zigler   
December 19, 2007 2:53 pm EST


Palladium trades for a quarter of platinum's cost, a fact Chinese consumers have deeply appreciated. China is the world's leading consumer of platinum for jewelry use, but buyer resistance to ever-increasing prices has allowed palladium jewelry to make substantial inroads. More than a fifth of the world's net palladium supply now goes to jewelry, with most of the demand arising in China.

Like platinum, palladium can be fashioned into jewelry as a stand-alone or alloyed with other metals. Palladium, for example, can be substituted for nickel in the manufacture of white gold.

Palladium wasn't always a poor relation, though. Palladium, in fact, actually cost more than platinum back in 2001. The technology to efficiently cast palladium as jewelry didn't exist then. With that problem now resolved, jewelry use has spiked as the price trajectories of platinum and palladium reversed.

Palladium's not all glitz and glamour, though. The metal has industrial applications as well: in dentistry, in automotive components and in electronics. Russia's the top producer of palladium, with at least half the world share, followed by South Africa, the United States and Canada.

Knowing all this should leave you with two questions:

  • a) Who's dictating demand for palladium?
  • b) Who controls supply?

[Answer hint: It ain't us.]

Platinum-To-Palladium Ratio

Platinum to Palladium

 

If your answers to the quiz compel you to think palladium's potential impressive, you can, of course, trade the metal through NYMEX futures. Outside of a commodity account, you can also obtain palladium exposure through an exchange-traded note (RJZ) based upon the Rogers International Commodity Index's metals subindex. RJZ carries a 1.4% weighting in palladium futures.

Another exchange-traded portfolio (RSX), tracking the DAXglobal Russia+ Index, has an 8.6% weighting in JSC MMC Norilsk, the primary producer of Russian palladium.

And for those investors looking for opportunities closer to home, the stock of two North American producers can be considered:

Stillwater Mining Co.: A subsidiary of Norimet Ltd., Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC) refines palladium, platinum and associated minerals from its Billings, Mont., base. The company claims 2.5 million ounces in proven reserves of palladium plus platinum.

North American Palladium: Headquartered in Toronto, North American Palladium (PAL) mines platinum group metals as well as other metals. PAL's principal property is an open-pit operation that produces platinum, gold, copper and nickel as by-products.



 

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Comments (6)

 Friday, 21 December 2007 0:19 EST - Posted by JJ2000426

 
Dear Brad Zigler:

I agree with your bullish view on palladium. But you haven't even started to touch the skin of why palladium is bullish. I have done a tremendous amount of research in palladium, and I believe a super bullish cycle of palladium is coming:

1.Jewelry demand. You talked about it already.

2.Fuel cell applications and hydrogen economy. This includes hydrogen fuel cell in vehicles, and the soon to be launched fuel cell battery for mobile electronics like cell phones etc. It's called DMFC, Direct Methanol Fuel Cell. All fuel cells need to use PGM metals as catalyst, that includes both platinum and palladium.

3.Other emerging palladium usage like palladium food insert, detergent to clean polluted ground water, etc.

4.The super bullish factor is palladium is used in cold fusion. And cold fusion could actually be REAL, after all. American Physical Society recently sponsored cold fusion conferences, a surprise move after cold fusion had been ridiculed for 18 years!!! If cold fuions becomes commercial reality, it could drive palladium price to a thousand times that of gold!!!

Read this article:
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/55173-palladium-an-investable-metal-that-defies-physics

 Friday, 21 December 2007 10:38 EST - Posted by Bill D

 
I agree with your article. THe two companies you have given are just about at all time lows. This is either the bottom or there is something wrong with these companies. Paladium can go to 1000 bucks an Oz, but if you don't have the right stocks/vechile to play, you can get burned. Surely there must be another way to play it ?

 Friday, 21 December 2007 13:15 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
Bill -

The unfortunate -- or fortunate, depending upon the state of the market -- bit about investing in mining stocks is that they're STOCKS. As such, they're embued with equity risk. When the stock market or a segment is viewed favorably, the risk produces positive results. When investors sour on equities, it's a drag.

If Barclays Global Investors hadn't scotched their plans for a US-based platinum ETF, you might have had a purer play available, since platinum and palladium are mined together.

There is a dollar-denominated palladium trust (PHPD) -- analogous to the streetTRACKS Gold Shares and the iShares Silver Trust -- traded on the London Stock Exchange. Unfortunately, PHPD, managed by Jersey-based ETF Securities Ltd, isn't open to US investors.

All is not lost, though. Sentiment toward the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) market is still favorable. You may want to consider sponsored American Depository Receipts of JSC MMC Norilsk Nickel, Russia's largest platinum/palladium producer.

Each ADR, trading on the Pink Sheets under the ticker NILSY, represents one ordinary Norilsk share.

At last look, the inside market for NILSY was $273.85 bid at $275.15 (25 x 50). At the bid, the ADRs are up 71 percent for the year.

Ordinary Norilsk shares (NILSF) trade in the 'grey market.' There are no market makers For NILSF, so it's, for all intents and purposes, closed off to retail investors.

 Monday, 24 December 2007 1:48 EST - Posted by JJ2000426

 
Brad:

Why would you recommend Nilsy? They are already very profitable and the stock price is already very high. So it's no longer a good investment, especially as nickel price stalled laterly.

One would do much better buy low and sell high. A stock gains most when the company transitions from not making a profit, to begin to make a profit. Such transition will happen to PAL and SWC as the PGM metals continue to move higher. Especially PAL is right now looks like a rock bottom. It's definitely a good buy.

The 'bad' Q3 result of PAL had been over-exagerated. It's nothing than a one time aberration due to the way how they do quarterly accounting:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/57172-calling-a-north-american-palladium-bottom

 Monday, 24 December 2007 8:48 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
JJ-

Thanks for your comment.

Keep in mind that I'm not 'recommending' any stock; I'm merely enumerating investment options in response to Bill's D's request for 'another way' to play the palladium card.

No one can say with certainty that SWC and PAL 'will' move higher or that NILSY will stagnate or fall.

One can't deny, however, that these stocks are sailing in different seas. As a BRIC issue, NILSY's sails are full while PAL and SWC face headwinds.

 Saturday, 09 February 2008 11:55 EST - Posted by Brad Zigler

 
See the update on palladium in the Desktop entry for February 7 ('Following The Other White Metal')

SWC and PAL have gained substantially.



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